WCHA pre-season press conference
Rumors that UND football may play Northern Iowa?
Destination: Milwaukee
WCHA pre-season press conference review
February 17, 2004
Sioux playoff picture
The Pairwise Rankings (PWR) mimick the ranking criteria the NCAA ice hockey tournament selection committee uses to seed the D-I hockey tournament. (PWR explained) Therefore, analyzing the PWR has become a favorite late-season hobby of college hockey devotees. Most readers of this entry probably already know that UND is currently ranked #1 in the PWR, but this article dives into some of the details of how that ranking was calculated and how it could change in the remaining weeks.
Current #1 seed: Boston College?
Though UND currently appears to lead the PWR, the "quality wins" bonuses (see RPI help) likely push Boston College ahead of the Sioux in RPI and PWR. Though the exact RPI points awarded for quality wins is unknown, USCHO -- the creator of PWR -- speculates that .005 for quality road wins, .003 for quality neutral wins, and .001 for quality home wins are reasonable guesses. Those values are also consistent with last year's tournament seedings (the first year the bonuses were used).
Only .0082 points separate UND's and Boston College's unmodified RPIs. While UND has 1 quality home win (against BC), BC has 1 quality road win and 2 quality neutral site wins. For the algebraists, if Br + 2*Bn - Bh > .0082, BC is ahead of UND.
Upcoming RPI changes for the Sioux
UND's remaining opponents are significantly weaker than UND's overall season opponents' winning percentage of 0.6090. If those opponents' winning percentages did not change (the contests against UND are not counted in UND's opponenets' win% calculation for RPI), UND's opponents' win percentage would fall to about 0.57 after playing those contests. Though that mark would still be the NCAA's best opponents' win percentage today, the reduction could still drop UND to 2nd in RPI.
| UND's opponents' win percentages | ||
|---|---|---|
| Feb 20/Feb 21 | at MSU-Mankato | .2833 |
| Feb 27/Feb 28 | at Minnesota-Duluth | .6935 |
| Mar 5/Mar 6 | Michigan Tech | .3000 |
Of course, any significant changes in win percentage for the top few teams could have a more dramatic effect on RPI than changes to strength of schedule.
Key PWR comparisons for the Sioux
Though there are many sources for individual PWR comparison, the SiouxSports.com PWR analysis allows you to dig in and determine exactly how the COP, TUC, and H2H were calculated AND how upcoming games could change those points!
| As mentioned above, BC likely already has a higher adjusted RPI than the Sioux, and almost certainly would after UND's upcoming strength of schedule reduction. BC passing UND in RPI would be enough to tip that comparison in BC's favor, leaving UND at #2. BC could also take the COP comparison from UND unless the Sioux earn at least a split at UMD (a common opponent of both the Sioux and the Eagles). The Sioux need a couple BC losses or a string of wins extending into the WCHA playoffs to hold onto the comparion against BC, and the #1 PWR spot. |  |
Other currently close pairwise comparisons for the Sioux:
- Maine (currently 2-1, but they're breathing down our necks on TUC, of which UMD is one).
- UMD (currently 4-2, but with 2 H2H games remaining, a Bulldog sweep could give them the edge if their RPI climbs enough).
- Though Wisconsin is only 3-2, it doesn't look like they have an easy way to overtake the Sioux.
